IEA World Energy Outlook: Just 5 years to avoid irreversible climate change.

In the WEO’s central New Policies Scenario, renewables increase from 13% of the mix today to 18% in 2035, underpinned by subsidies that rise from $64 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010. “Oil demand rises from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035. The WEO presents a 450 Scenario, which traces an energy path consistent with meeting the globally agreed goal of limiting the temperature rise to 2°C. Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions permitted to 2035 in the 450 Scenario are already locked-in by existing capital stock, including power stations, buildings and factories. Without further action by 2017, the energy-related infrastructure then in place would generate all the CO2 emissions allowed in the 450 Scenario up to 2035. Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.” “The door is closing,” Fatih Birol says. “I am very worried – if we don’t change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever.”