New prediction that Russian production cannot keep up with demand.

FT: Russian production rises to 10.5mbd, but exports slow on rising domestic demand. Rosneft and Gazprom helped push Russian crude oil production to a post-Soviet era high last year according to preliminary data released by the country’s energy ministry.” “Average production increased by 0.1m barrels a day from 2011 levels to 10.4m barrels a day, boosted by the state-controlled companies’ output – putting Russia among the world’s largest crude producers, alongside Saudi Arabia. ….Some analysts have questioned whether new fields are being developed fast enough to allow for further increases in production. / Thane Gustafson, an expert on Russia’s oil industry at Georgetown University in the US, recently told a conference in Moscow that virtually all new Russian production has come from fields that were discovered during the Soviet period. He said the first slip in Russian oil production was predicted in 2015, with declines setting in during the second half of the decade. / Export levels are already rising more slowly that current production, because of surging domestic consumption of oil.”
JL thought: Note the FT headline is about record production. The real story, though – surely – is the observation that almost all the new production is from fields discovered back in the 1980s, and the concern about what happens to production beyond 2015.