Citi predicts end of oil demand growth this decade.

Seth Kleinman, head of the Global Energy Strategy at Citi, in the FT: “….the consensus is wrong. This is due to the substitution of natural gas – often obtained through the hydraulic fracturing of shale rock, or fracking – for oil, and fuel-efficiency mandates in many key countries. The prospect of oil demand hitting a plateau this decade is much more feasible than the market seems to think.” “….This has resulted in a rush in the US to substitute natural gas for oil. It will soon go global. Environmental concerns, politics and sheer availability are all facilitating the spread of the substitution trend. ….What these arguments miss is that in 2010 cars only accounted for about 22m barrels a day out of a global oil market of 87m b/d. …..The rest of the demand comes from trucks (13m b/d), aircraft (5m b/d), ships (4m b/d), railways (2m b/d), petrochemicals (9m b/d), other industrial activity (14m b/d) and power (5m b/d) or heat generation (9m b/d). ….In the US the shift is visible in strategies of many companies, from Warren Buffett’s railway BNSF, to UPS and FedEx parcel delivery fleets, and Apache and other oil and gas exploration and production companies shifting their fracking and high-horsepower drilling rigs to run on gas as opposed to diesel.”
“Global Oil Demand Growth – The End Is Nigh”.
Javier Blas in the FT: “the boom in US shale oil production – coupled with rising output in Iraq, Canada and Saudi Arabia – has left the theory about an imminent peak in global oil supplies looking a little premature. ….Peak oil demand is a provocative theory and would rely on some unanswered questions being met: namely on the development of large-scale gas-fired trucks, rail and shipping vessels; the sustainability of the US shale boom; policy action to support improved fuel-mileage and to phase out oil subsidies.”