UK MoD study flags imminent peak "easy" oil, and $500 oil by 2040.

Guardian: A little-known Ministry of Defence (MoD) report published earlier this year warns that converging global trends will dramatically affect UK economic prosperity through to 2040.” “The report says that depletion of cheap conventional “easy oil”, along with shortages of food and water due to climate change and population growth, will sustain rocketing energy prices. Long-term price spikes are likely to lead to a long recession in Western economies, fuelling internal unrest and the rise of nationalist movements.
The report departs significantly from the conservative and relatively optimistic scenarios officially adopted by the British government, as exemplified in the coalition’s new Energy Security Strategy published in November last year by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc).”
The report predicts that “the imminent passing of the point of peak ‘easy oil’ will mean that hydrocarbon-based energy prices will rise significantly out to 2040.” Other factors affecting energy prices include “increasing demand for fossil fuels” due to South Asia’s “industrial rise” and greater “volatility in supply” in the Middle East.
Contradicting the British government’s official position on peak oil – which accepts the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest estimate that oil prices will reach “$125/barrel in real terms (over $215/barrel in nominal terms)” – the MoD report projects an exponential escalation in prices, such that “the increasing price of oil… is likely to reach $500 a barrel by 2040″ – almost double conventional projections.”