"Half forecasted oil production would be stranded" under 2˚C policies.

Rystad Energy for the Norwegian government:  “When comparing the carbon budget with potential emissions from all known fossil resources, it becomes apparent that 2/3 of known fossil resources must be left in the ground under 2DS.” “However, coal is the dominating resource both in terms of potential CO2 emissions and known resources. While more than 80% of the known coal resources must be left in the ground under 2DS, less than half of the known oil and gas resources are stranded under 2DS. Worth noting is that a large part of the known resources are forecasted to be produced after 2050.
….The second part of the study compares the 2DS carbon budget of oil and gas with potential emissions during combustion of the forecasted unrestricted production from 2013- 2050. It is estimated that only 11% of the likely unrestricted production towards 2050 must be removed under 2DS. The relatively low share of stranded production in the period 2012-2050 is due to significant forecasted production also after 2050.
Based on bottom-up estimation of CO2 emissions from combustion of forecasted production, taking into account different emission factors for different fuel types, Rystad Energy estimates that around 20% of the forecasted unrestricted oil production will generate emissions that exceed the carbon budget. On the other hand, the emissions from forecasted unrestricted gas production is close to being within budget.
Approximately 50% of forecasted production 2012-2050 from not yet developed oil resources is likely to be stranded under 2DS: 1. Discovered fields that are non-commercial under a regime with weak oil and gas prices. The largest known non-commercial resources are mainly located in Russia, Canada and The Middle East.
2. Undiscovered fields in areas with high exploration, development and operating costs compared to potential revenues (high break/even prices). Forecasted production from resources not yet discovered has been analyzed area-by-area. Stranded areas with largest emission potential in the unrestricted case are offshore North- and South America, West Africa and in the Arctic. Most stranded areas are likely to be developed before 2030 in an unlimited price scenario.
Stranded fields in Norway 2012-2050 are analyzed by discussing discovered fields that currently are regarded as non-commercial and by pointing out that future exploration in a low oil price scenario might be focused on mature areas. Future Norwegian frontier exploration areas that still might be economical to develop under 2DS, are likely to be close to shore/infrastructure conditions.”