'Saudi America' "remains a Washington fantasy."

John Dizard in FT: “Bob Brackett, a geologist at Bernstein, the brokerage, is, as I have mentioned in the past, among the best of the oil and gas microeconomic analysts on Wall Street. ….These days, oddly, he is known on the Street as a “shale bear”, which is hardly the case; he just doesn’t believe trees grow to the sky. Essentially, Mr Brackett says, shale oil in the US is a far more limited resource than shale gas.”” The geological conditions that allow oil to be cooked from ancient hydrocarbons are far rarer than those that turn them into gas. It is highly likely, Mr Brackett says, that economic shale oil properties have already been identified. ….Even with a more optimistic (for the oil producers) assumption in the price of the stuff, he sees production in the formerly hardscrabble, now rich, state of North Dakota topping out in 2019 at 1.2m barrels per day. Hardly “Saudi America”. With declining conventional and offshore Gulf production, that means US “energy independence” will remain a Washington fantasy.”