Citi's prediction of peak oil demand at 92 mbd: "unusual".

Brad Plumer in the Washington Post: “Tally it up, and analysts at Citi think the world’s thirst for oil could peak in a few years at around 92 million barrels per day — as long as vehicle efficiency for cars and trucks keeps improving by about 2.5 percent per year. This is an unusual prediction, to say the least.” “For context, BP expects global oil demand to keep growing from 89 million barrels per day today to around 104 million barrels per day by 2030.
So is Citi’s forecast plausible? For some perspective, I asked Stanford’s Adam Brandt, who recently co-authored a peer-reviewed study that explored the “peak demand” scenario. ….Brandt’s analysis provides a different picture than Citi’s forecast. Barring some huge policy shift, demand for some sort of liquid fuel for transportation is likely to keep growing enormously in the years ahead — the study projects that “transport energy demand” in Asia could grow more than 1,000 percent over the coming century.
….it’s possible that fuel efficiency won’t improve as rapidly as these forecasts expect. As Chris Nelder has pointed out, stricter fuel-economy laws can help, but much depends on how quickly the cars on the road actually get upgraded. In the United States, the turnover rate for the 240 million vehicles in circulation has been fairly modest these past few years.
….And if the world can’t find ways to curb its oil use on the demand side, then we’re back to worrying about resource scarcity — and in that case, as Nelder argues here, high oil prices could do the job of cutting our demand.”