EIA's latest bullish forecasts for tight oil peak: 4.8 mbd in 2021.

Bloomberg: “Production from shale formations in the United States, which has led to an unexpected reversal in long declining oil output, will peak at 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, according to an Energy Information Administration forecast issued on Monday.” “This year is the bumper year for production out of the tightly packed shale rock. Output should rise by 1.2 million bpd, the highest annual jump, to 3.5 million bpd this year, according to tables in the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook.
Production will exceed 4 million bpd next year and rise more gradually toward its peak. It will fall to 3.2 million bpd by 2040.
Last year, the EIA expected shale oil production to peak in 2020 at 2.8 million bpd with this year’s production at 2.3 million bpd.”
Bloomberg: :U.S. crude oil production will approach a record by 2016, climbing to the highest level in 46 years as rising output from shale formations lifts domestic supplies, reducing the nation’s need for foreign oil.
Domestic output will grow annually by about 800,000 barrels a day to 9.5 million in 2016, nearing the record level of 1970, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2014. Natural gas production will grow 56 percent to 37.6 trillion cubic feet by 2040, boosting liquefied natural gas exports to 3.5 trillion, the EIA said today.
….The U.S. pumped 8.075 million barrels a day of oil in the week ended Dec. 6, the most since October 1988, while the nation’s refiners operated at 92.6 percent of capacity, the highest level for the time of year since 2004, the EIA said in a report released Dec. 11. Exports of gasoline, diesel and other fuels reached a high of 3.79 million barrels a day in July, EIA data show.
The EIA last year forecast production would rise to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2019 before gradually declining to 6.1 million in 2040. U.S. output reached an all-time high 9.6 million in 1970.
….The boom, which has reduced the nation’s reliance on imports, will make the country the world’s largest producer by 2015, five years sooner than last year’s forecast, the International Energy Agency in Paris said last month.
….The imported share of U.S. petroleum and liquid fuels supply is expected to drop to 25 percent in 2016 before growing to 32 percent in 2040, compared with 37 percent in a 2013 forecast. Domestic crude output is expected to drop after 2019, the agency said.
Natural gas production is forecast to rise through 2040 as higher spot prices through 2037 at Henry Hub in Louisiana, the U.S. benchmark pricing point, encourage higher output. The EIA forecasts gas will settle at about $4.38 per million British thermal units by 2020 and climb to more than $7.50 in 2040, according to today’s report.
U.S. natural gas output growth slowed after prices dropped to as low as $1.902 per million Btu in April 2012 and rigs were diverted to seek more-valuable crude oil. Production is forecast to rise 1.8 percent in 2013, the slowest pace since 2005, before easing to 1.4 percent in 2014, according to EIA data compiled by Bloomberg.
Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. jumped 14 to 1,411 on Dec. 13, the highest level since June, as activity climbed in North Dakota’s Williston Basin and Texas’s Permian, Baker Hughes Inc., a Houston-based field services company, reported on its website. The gas count dropped six to 369, about 57 percent below the five-year average for the time of year.
“We’re directing less and less drilling toward gas and as long as that continues, we’re going to have an increasingly difficult time maintaining our natural gas production,” Arthur Berman, director of Labyrinth Consulting Services in Houston, said in a phone interview today. “It’s concerning that we’re assuming gas production will carry on forever.”
Total U.S. primary energy consumption grows by 12 percent between 2012 and 2040. Fossil fuel share of demand falls to 80 percent from 82 percent in 2012.”
NYT: “Domestic oil production will continue to soar for years to come, the Energy Department predicted on Monday, scaling to levels not seen in nearly half a century by 2016.
The annual outlook by the department’s Energy Information Administration was cited by experts as confirmation that the United States was well on its way — far faster than anticipated even a year ago — to achieving virtual energy independence.
The report predicted that the increase in United States production would contribute to a decline in the world oil benchmark price over the next few years to $92 a barrel in 2017 from a 2012 average of $112 a barrel, which should translate into lower prices at the pump for consumers.
….“The E.I.A. report confirms that the United States really is experiencing an energy revolution,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and author of “The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.”