"Fossilised Revenues: $28trn of revenues at risk for fossil-fuel industry."

Mark Lewis of Kepler Chevreux (no url): “A 450-ppm world would threaten high-cost, high-carbon revenues. Under a global climate deal consistent with a 2°C world, we estimate that the fossil-fuel industry would stand to lose USD28trn (in constant 2012 USD) of gross revenues over the next two decades compared with business as usual.”
“We derive this number by comparing the IEA’s base-case scenario for global energy trends out to 2035 and its scenario consistent with a 2°C world. The oil industry accounts forUSD19.3trn of this, gas USD4trn, and coal USD4.9trn. The revenues most at risk would be concentrated on the high-cost, high-carbon sources of production. For the oil industry, this means, above all, deepwater, oil-sands, and shale-oil plays.
But business as usual also has big risks for fossil-fuel companies. The oil industry’s increasingly unsustainable dynamics — as manifested, for example,  by ongoing capex reductions amid record-high oil prices — mean that stranded-asset risk exists even under business-as-usual conditions: high oil prices will encourage the shift away from oil towards renewables (whose costs are falling) while also incentivising greater energy  efficiency.
Engagement now key for stress-testing climate scenarios. Ongoing negotiations in preparation for COP-21 next year are only  likely to increase the pressure for greater transparency on carbon risk.  Against this backdrop we think investors need more details on the breakdown of oil companies’ assets by project type and on their capital-allocation processes in order to be able better to assess carbon risk and cost/revenue risk. We see an opportunity for the oil industry to engage in a transparent dialogue with investors on the carbon risks it faces and thus provide a transparent stress test of its business model against potential future climate-policy scenarios.”