RTCC: “US gas prices have risen to a level which is driving a “significant” return to burning coal, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) Global Research said in a market report published on Tuesday.”
“The investment bank forecast that US gas consumption in power generation would fall this year, following a fall last year after four straight successive rises from 2008 to 2012.
And it projected strong gas prices through 2017 and beyond on the back of compelling demand and supply drivers.
….US carbon emissions fell faster than in any developed country in 2012, because low gas prices following the shale gas revolution had motivated a switch to gas away from higher carbon-emitting coal.
The Department of Energy statistics arm, the Energy Information Administration, said last week that the relative economics of coal, gas and nuclear power would determine the trajectory of US carbon emissions over the next three decades.
Near-term gas supply contracts were now priced at levels which made significant numbers of coal-fired power plants more economic than gas plants, BofAML said on Tuesday.
“Prices have risen to the $4.70-5.00 level where gas to coal switching is very significant,” the bank said in its report, The long and the short of US natural gas.
“While near-dated contracts in 2014 have surged, calendar 2015 and 2016 prices have only moved up modestly. As a result, prices are now encouraging coal burn near-term, but are not yet incentivizing a big ramp up in drilling activity across the country.”
….US monthly gas prices reached recent historic lows below $2/ MMBtu in April 2012, according to Henry Hub benchmark data. But they have risen strongly over the past year, and especially during the recent cold winter, reaching $6 in February, a level last seen six years ago.”
Future Today
