Iraq and Libya crucial to global oil supply in the short term: IEA.

FT: “Demand for oil is set to accelerate next year as the global economy gains momentum and will be met by rising supplies from the US and Canada, according to the west’s energy watchdog.”
“However, geopolitical uncertainty in several key producing regions could upset this relatively benign outlook the International Energy Agency has warned in its widely followed monthly report.
“Supply risks in the Middle East and north Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high,” said the Paris-based organisation that advises major consuming nations on oil policy. “Whether in crude of product markets, there is little room for compliance”.
Sectarian strife in Iraq drove Brent to a nine-month high above $115 a barrel in June. Since then, the international oil benchmark has declined by almost 6 per cent on concerns about faltering demand from refineries in Europe and Asia.
At the same time, Libyan production is tipped to rise after rebels lifted the blockades of several key ports, fields and oil installations.
In spite of the current weak patch the IEA said prices remained at historically high levels and there was nothing to suggest a “turning of the tide just yet”.
“Global refinery throughputs already seem to be rebounding steeply, buoyed in part by record runs in Russia, capacity increases in Saudi Arabia, and a return from unplanned outages in the United States,” it said. “The global economy is still expected to gain momentum in 2015”.
Presenting detailed 2015 forecasts for the first time, the IEA said it expected global oil demand to grow by 1.4m barrels a day next year, up from 1.2m b/d in 2014.
It said developing nations, or non OECD countries, would lead the gains, with demand rising to an average of 48.2m b/d. In contrast, demand in rich countries would inch lower to 45.9m b/d.
….The IEA said production in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, had averaged 9.78m b/d in June, up 70,000 b/d from May.
“Contrary to seasonal patterns, the Kingdom barely hiked production in June, a sign that demand for its crude may not have significantly increased,” the report said.
Saudi production usually increases in the summer to meet higher domestic demand from power stations. Last year crude burnt in power stations during the peak air-conditioning period (April to September) averaged 615,000 b/d.”