Bloomberg: “OPEC is resisting pressure to cut oil production while demand slumps as it tests how low prices must go to make U.S. shale oil unprofitable. As producers become more efficient, that floor is sinking.”
“The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output by the most in 13 months in September, even as crude plunged into a bear market and demand growth weakens to a five-year low, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the largest and third-largest members of OPEC, indicated the price slump doesn’t warrant immediate production cuts, the IEA said.
While OPEC acted as a “swing producer” over the past decade, responding to surpluses by cutting output, it’s now letting oil slide to see if North American production can withstand lower prices, said Antoine Halff, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division. So far drillers are showing no signs of cracking, with the U.S. government forecasting record shale output in November, helping boost the nation’s crude supply to the highest level since 1986.
….Brent crude, a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, slumped as much as 2 percent today to a four-year low of $83.37 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Brent has dropped more than 20 percent from its June peak, meeting a common definition of a bear market. West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange sank as much as 2.2 percent to $80.01, a two-year low.
Saudi Arabia has “appeared determined to defend its market share” in Asia, even at the expense of lower prices, the IEA said in a report yesterday. Kuwait’s oil minister said there may be “no room” to restore prices by trimming supply. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are offering the biggest discounts to crude buyers in Asia since at least 2009, amid speculation they are seeking to maintain market share.
“It makes perfect sense for Saudi Arabia to let the price drift down,” said Jamie Webster, an analyst in Washington at IHS Inc. “There’s a lot of discussion on what is the break-even price for shale, and whatever you believe, the reality is there’s no clear consensus. It gives the Saudis the opportunity to test” that level, he said.
About 2.6 million barrels of daily production, or 2.8 percent of global output, requires an oil price of $80 a barrel or more to be profitable, the IEA said. Only about 4 percent of U.S. shale output needs prices above that level, it said. Canadian synthetic oil projects are the most dependent on high prices, with about a quarter needing oil to remain above $80, the agency said.
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in hydrocarbon-rich underground shale layers have helped U.S. oil production grow 65 percent in the past five years to the highest level since 1986. That’s reduced crude imports by more than 3.1 million barrels a day since peaking in 2005.
Production per well was projected to increase in fields in North Dakota, Texas and Colorado, the Energy Information Administration said yesterday. Companies are getting more oil per dollar spent drilling, driving costs down by as much as $30 a barrel since 2012, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longson said in a report Oct. 13.
….U.S. shale producers could keep pumping oil economically even if Brent dropped to $60 a barrel, Bjornar Tonhaugen, an analyst with Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said in an e-mailed report yesterday. Brent would need to remain at $50 a barrel for 12 months for North American shale output to drop by 500,000 barrels a day, he said. Morgan Stanley (MS) said break-even costs at the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas range from $30 to $60 a barrel.
Oil may have already fallen sufficiently to curb the most expensive shale projects, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Drilling may slow down in North Dakota with WTI below $90 a barrel, Jeff Currie, the bank’s head of commodities research, said in an interview in London on Oct. 1. Producers in the area decreased activity when WTI plunged below this level in 2012, Currie said.
….Global oil consumption will expand by about 650,000 barrels a day this year to 92.7 million, the lowest growth since 2009 and about half the increase projected in June, the IEA said. OPEC boosted production in September, pumping 30.47 million barrels a day, the most since August 2013, the group said Oct. 10 in its latest monthly oil market report. Its next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 27 in Vienna.”
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