Guardian: “A total shutdown of Russia’s gas supply to Europe will not cause blackouts this winter, the European commission said on Thursday, as Vladimir Putin warned of a potential repeat of 2008 when Russia turned off gas supplies to the Ukraine.”
““If we see that our Ukrainian partners, just like in 2008, begin removing gas without permission from the export pipeline system, we, just like in 2008, will consecutively reduce the stolen volume at the cost of supplies,” Putin told reporters in Serbia.
The European commission’s gas stress tests report said that several states in eastern Europe and the Balkans would be hit by a six-month embargo of Russian gas exports. But so long as neighbouring countries supported each other, a predicted 3% shortfall in supplies would only trigger power cuts in one EU nation: Estonia.
Europe’s emergency 30-day gas stocks are 90% full and by utilising reverse gas flows to vulnerable countries, fuel switching and the demand reductions caused by price increases in a crisis, the commission believes that any collateral damage from the ongoing crisis in Ukraine can be managed.
….Russia is the EU’s biggest fuel supplier, providing the bloc with 30% of its gas. In the stress tests, EU countries simulated gas supply crises in scenarios where they cooperated with their neighbours, or did not.
….A key element of the EU’s prescription for avoiding a gas crunch this winter is that member states “allow market forces to work for as long as possible,” even though the commission estimates that procuring liquefied natural gas on the global market could increase prices by up to 100%.”
Future Today
